The United States reportedly experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years, a shift that a new report attributes largely to President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration policies and a sharp decline in new arrivals.
According to a study released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution, the number of people leaving the country or being removed exceeded those entering, marking a historic reversal after decades of steady population growth fueled by immigration. The report estimates net migration for 2025 ranged from a loss of roughly 295,000 people to near zero.
While the Trump administration has highlighted stepped-up removals as a major pillar of its immigration enforcement strategy, the Brookings report said the negative number was driven primarily by a dramatic drop in entries into the United States. The authors pointed to a combination of stricter border controls, policy uncertainty, and reduced legal pathways as key factors behind the slowdown.
The report said the decline reflects both increased enforcement and voluntary departures, along with fewer people arriving in the first place. It also warned that, given current policies, continued negative net migration in 2026 is likely.
Among the major contributors identified by Brookings were the administration’s suspension of many humanitarian programs, including most refugee admissions, as well as a significant reduction in temporary visas. The report noted that refugee programs were largely halted with limited exceptions, while fewer temporary workers and visitors entered the country compared to previous years.
Brookings estimated that between 310,000 and 315,000 people were removed from the U.S. in 2025. That figure is notably lower than what officials at the Department of Homeland Security have claimed. DHS has said that more than 600,000 people have been removed so far as part of the administration’s crackdown.
The report emphasized that the estimated removals in 2025 were only modestly higher than in 2024, when about 285,000 people were removed. One notable difference, however, was how those removals were carried out. Unlike in 2024, the majority of removals in 2025 were initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection from the interior of the country, rather than by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. That distinction came despite high-profile ICE actions dominating headlines throughout the year.
A spokesperson for DHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Looking ahead, the Brookings authors predicted that removals could rise in 2026 thanks to funding from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The report said that additional resources from the legislation are likely to boost infrastructure and staffing, enabling a higher level of enforcement.
The study also warned that the net migration loss could have ripple effects across the economy, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant populations. Businesses serving those communities may experience what the report called “unexpectedly weak economic activity.”
According to Brookings, the slowdown could translate into weaker employment growth, reduced GDP, and slower consumer spending. The authors estimated that consumer spending could fall by between $60 billion and $110 billion over 2025 and 2026 as a result of the migration shift.
Supporters of the administration argue the data reflects a long-overdue tightening of the immigration system and stronger enforcement of U.S. law. Critics, meanwhile, point to the economic consequences outlined in the report. Either way, the findings underscore how dramatically Trump’s immigration agenda has reshaped migration patterns in just a single year.
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