In a surprising turn of events in the New York City mayoral race, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has reportedly seen a significant uptick in support, following a recent poll indicating he has overtaken former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary.
The Emerson College poll, conducted in collaboration with The Hill and PIX11 News, shows Mamdani closing in on Cuomo, with a particularly notable performance in ranked-choice voting scenarios.
The poll results, gathered between June 18 and 20, reveal that Cuomo leads with 35% of the vote, closely followed by Mamdani at 32%. This margin falls within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting a competitive race.
The polling methodology included a combination of mobile, landline, and online surveys, ensuring a diverse representation of voter opinions.
In a simulated ranked-choice voting scenario, Mamdani surged ahead, capturing 51.8% of the votes compared to Cuomo’s 48.2%.
This shift reflects a growing momentum for Mamdani, particularly among younger voters. According to the poll, early voters favored Mamdani by a margin of 41% to 31%, indicating a generational divide in candidate support.
Demographic trends highlighted in the poll further illustrate the evolving dynamics of the race. Mamdani enjoyed considerable support among voters under 50, who favored him by a 2-to-1 margin.
In contrast, Cuomo maintained stronger backing from older voters, particularly those aged 50 and above, as well as among Hispanic and Black voters.
The implications of Mamdani’s rise have reverberated through online betting markets, particularly Polymarket, where his odds have fluctuated significantly following the poll’s release.
While Cuomo has at times regained his position as the favorite, Mamdani’s surge has made him a formidable contender in the eyes of gamblers and political analysts alike.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that while Mamdani’s support is surging, Cuomo’s numbers have remained relatively stagnant over the past several months.
This stagnation, juxtaposed with Mamdani’s rapid ascent, could signal a shift in voter sentiment as the primary date approaches.
As the Democratic primary nears, the race between Mamdani and Cuomo will likely intensify, with both candidates striving to solidify their bases and appeal to undecided voters.
The outcome will not only shape the future of New York City politics but also reflect broader trends in voter preferences and party dynamics leading up to the general election.
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