It might be getting late early for the Democrats. Political analyst Mark Halperin warned on Friday that Vice President Kamala Harris may face a tough path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for a victory over former President Donald Trump.
Speaking on Newsmax’s “Wake Up America,” Halperin suggested that the Harris campaign may need to focus on winning three critical Midwestern swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as Trump leads or is tied with her in many of the key Sun Belt states.
“I don’t think it’s impossible for her to win some of the Sun Belt states and I don’t think she’s given up. She’s got so much money and it’s still coming in that she can fully fund those states. But if you’re asking about their Electoral College calculations, they’re certainly not emphasizing the Sun Belt,” Halperin said. “For a time when she replaced [President] Joe Biden, there was some talk of perhaps the Sun Belt strategy is a better one for her as compared to Joe Biden. But if they’re not 100% down to winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, they’re pretty close to it at this point,” noted The Daily Caller.
“As her chances of winning the four bigger Sun Belt states have receded, that gives Trump more options to get to 270 … The reality of the private polling, which differs from the public polling on both sides — and Trump is, you know — got a chance to win all three of the Midwestern states, the Great Lake states,” he added. “And he just probably will need one to win it. And he leads a movement, she doesn’t. And doubts about her continue.”
As the race remains extremely tight in the swing states, statistician Nate Silver criticized pollsters on Thursday for the results they publish, which have tended to align with each other.
“I don’t think we’re going to learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less. Every time a pollster, ‘Oh, every state is just a plus one. Every single state’s a tie.’ No, you’re fucking herding. You’re cheating. You’re cheating,” Silver said. “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your fucking finger on the scale.”
Polling averages from RealClearPolitics show Trump with a slight advantage in five of the top seven swing states. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris holds only narrow leads, adding to the pressure on her campaign to build strong momentum in these states.
For a time, strategists considered whether Harris could pivot toward a Sun Belt strategy, as her profile might appeal more to the diverse demographics of states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, Halperin noted that the latest polling appears to shift the Harris campaign’s focus back to the Midwest. Trump’s potential to secure wins across multiple Sun Belt states broadens his paths to 270 electoral votes, while Harris’ chances may rely on sweeping the key Midwestern states.
Halperin has claimed that although the data seems to be favoring Trump, but many political professionals are still leery.
“I’ll pass it on because it’s a tea leaf or two,” says @MarkHalperin. “More independent analysts who I talked to, people who are very experienced in politics but aren’t partisans or aren’t employed by either side, more of them today looked at the data and said they thought the… pic.twitter.com/0y4XN5gIWY
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) November 1, 2024
“More independent analysts who I talked to, people who are very experienced in politics but aren’t partisans or aren’t employed by either side, more of them today looked at the data and said they thought the odds were very high that Donald Trump would win. However, a lot of people, including some Republicans and some people in the media, said to me today that their spidey sense, their gut, was that Harris was going to win. I can’t account, really, for either.”
The political journalist has previously issued dire warnings about how Democrats will react if Trump wins another term.
