Nevada, a state traditionally viewed as a Democratic stronghold, is emerging as a potential flashpoint in the upcoming presidential election. Experts speaking to the Daily Caller News Foundation suggest that this swing state, which has consistently voted blue since 2008, is now presenting a tighter race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. While Nevada’s six electoral votes may seem small compared to other battleground states, its unique economic landscape and diverse demographic composition could make it a key player in determining the next occupant of the White House.
Experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that Nevada, long considered a Democratic stronghold, may pave the path for disaster for Kamala Harris.
Although Nevada has consistently voted blue since 2008, the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tightening in the swing state, which could prove damaging for the Harris campaign. Although Nevada’s electoral weight is smaller compared to other battlegrounds, the Silver State’s unique economy and demographic makeup could be a deciding factor for which candidate takes the White House, experts told the DCNF.
“There are very few paths to victory that do not involve Nevada,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF.
“It would be a big blow to her when we take those electoral votes,” McLaughlin told the DCNF.
“One of the particularly interesting things about it is it’s the only state that President Trump lost twice,” Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist based in Nevada, told the DCNF. “Now, he has a chance to flip it this cycle.”
Before 2016, Nevada served as a strong indicator about who would win the presidency, according to ABC News. “With one exception — 1976 — Nevada voted for the winner in every presidential contest from 1912 until 2016, when it broke its winning streak by voting for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by just over 2 points. While it has only six electoral votes, those votes have proven decisive in the tight contests of the recent era. Nevada helped elect President Joe Biden in 2020, who carried the state by a nearly identical margin to Clinton’s, and in 2022, the purple state helped determine control of the Senate in a close race that took days to call.
Presidential margins in the state have been narrow over the last two decades (with the exception of former President Barack Obama’s relatively big wins in 2008 and 2012) and in many cases have closely approximated the national popular vote. Despite having consistently tight races, the state has been steadily blue in presidential races since 2008, while also trending right compared to the country as a whole. In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12 percentage points, compared to his 7-point win nationally, putting the state 5 points to the left of the country. But in each election since then, Nevada has inched right. In 2020, Biden won nationally by 4 points, but only won the Silver State by 2, placing it to the right of the national popular vote for the first time since the 2004 presidential election.”
Polls indicate a tightening race in Nevada this year, with Harris holding a slim lead of about 1 point in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average for the state. While this is slightly worse than her national performance, where she leads Trump by nearly 3 points, it’s a marked improvement over President Biden’s standing, as he had been trailing Trump in Nevada.
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