As President Joe Biden’s tenure comes to an end, he’s leaving his party in a disastrous position. At 82 years old, Biden has faced a series of challenges, including mounting pressure from within his own party to step aside from a potential 2024 reelection campaign due to concerns about his age and fitness. Yet, the consequences of his administration extend far beyond January 20, 2025, when his term officially concludes and most revolve around two issues: corruption and incompetence.
Recent analysis highlights a concerning decline in party identification, underscoring the strain Biden’s presidency has placed on the party’s foundation. According to Republican pollster David Winston, exit polls from the 2024 election revealed a historic shift: for the first time since the Watergate era, Democrats fell to third place in party identification. Currently, 34 percent of voters identify as independents, surpassing the Democratic Party’s 31 percent, while Republicans lead with 35 percent.
“The 2024 election marked a pivotal moment, as independents overtook one of the major parties to claim second place in party identification,” writes Byron York at The Washington Examiner, summarizing Winston’s findings. This decline marks the Democratic Party’s worst performance in decades. In comparison, during Barack Obama’s first presidential victory in 2008, Democratic identification stood at 39 percent, but by 2024, that figure had dwindled to just 31 percent.
Winston’s analysis estimates that this drop represents more than 10 million fewer self-identified Democrats participating in the 2024 election compared to 2020. Simultaneously, the number of self-identified independents grew by an equivalent 10 million voters. These shifts suggest widespread dissatisfaction, with many disillusioned Democrats choosing to align with no party at all, reflecting a broader discontent with the party’s trajectory under Biden.
The reasons behind this transformation are complex and multifaceted. “The electorate moved away from Democrats as a result of Biden’s policies and voted for change,” Winston explains. Key issues—ranging from economic stagnation and a surge in immigration to perceived failures in foreign policy—have alienated voters. Vice President Kamala Harris, tasked with navigating the administration’s legacy after its electoral defeat, struggled to present a vision distinct from Biden’s leadership.
This leaves the Democratic Party at a critical juncture: how can it rebuild and restore trust? The loss of millions of voters and a diminished influence on the national stage cannot be addressed with superficial changes. Winston argues that the party needs to implement substantial reforms to realign with voters’ priorities. This involves more than opposing Republican policies; it requires rebuilding credibility and forging a compelling vision for the future, one that doesn’t involve handing out preemptive pardons to cover up potential corruption from the White House.
