Democrats have entered a full freak out mode.
Last week, The Hill, for example, wrote that “Democrats’ nerves are at an all-time high.
Two months ago — even a month ago — they were feeling bullish about Vice President Harris’s prospects of defeating former President Trump.
But now, with less than a month to go until Election Day, they’re increasingly worried about a number of issues plaguing the Democratic nominee’s campaign.
On Tuesday, there was grumbling from some Democrats about the vice president’s interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes.”
There’s also concern on everything from the static poll numbers in the race to the vice president’s messaging and even her standing with men — not just white men but Black and Hispanic men, too.”
It’s not surprising that there’s some panic over Harris’ campaign. The “60 Minutes” interview was so bad that they edited it to try and make her sound cogent and the campaign released an ad aimed at men that turned into a fiasco.
David Plouffe, a senior advisor to the campaign, has begun telling Democrats that they bought too much into fake polls, writes The Daily Caller.
Pollsters and pundits have warned about the tightening polls as November approaches, with reports claiming people within the party are growing “nervous,” according to CNN. Co-host Dan Pfeiffer asked Plouffe on “Pod Save America” if he was concerned about the race and whether it had “changed” in recent weeks, to which Plouffe responded that Harris has consistently been tied with Trump in the polls.
“So I know for all of us that want to see Kamala Harris win, we wish there was an easy pathway — that pathway does not exist. This is basically going to come down to, you know, history would suggest it’s not going to come down to several thousand votes in seven states, but it’s going to come down to a very narrow margin,” Plouffe said.
“I think the freakout is because there were a bunch of polls, I’d say in the last month, that showed a lead for Kamala Harris that was not real. It’s not what we were seeing — we’ve seen this thing basically be tied let’s say since mid-September,” Plouffe added. “This is the race we have, it’s the race we expected. I don’t think it’s going to open up for either candidate, I think it’s going to be close all the way in. I would just remind everybody, whether it’s internal data or public data, a poll that shows Donald Trump up 48, 47 that then shows us up 48, 47 is essentially the same thing. This thing’s going to be decided on the margins in these few number of states.”
Plouffe previously stated he believes Trump and Harris will remain tied until Election Day, but warned that Trump appears strong in this race.
While polls have continued to show a close race, the prediction markets based on betting has seen Trump take the lead, according to Fortune.
“The highly anticipated U.S. presidential election is just 22 days away, and polls show an increasingly tighter race. Two national polls released Sunday show an ultra-close race with Vice President Kamala Harris just barely in the lead, while a third poll shows her tied with former President Donald Trump.
But prediction markets tell a different story. PredictIt shows Trump’s campaign in the lead as the 2024 presidential election winner. It also has the GOP winning the presidency and the electoral college margin. As of Monday afternoon, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace, also shows Trump has a better chance of winning the election on Nov. 5.
While prediction markets have been around for a while, they’ve grown in popularity—especially for political events. These betting sites allow traders to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a given event, like whether Trump will get impeached or Biden will leave the presidential race.
While polls tell you about how people responded in the recent past, the odds on sites like PredictIt and Polymarket show real-time sentiment and are better for mapping the future, according to Miller. Plus, polls don’t show who will win the electoral college, while traders on prediction markets can wager on its outcome.”
As of October 15, Polymarket, a major prediction site, has Trump leading with 57.5 percent of the bet share..
