Biden Has Reached A Bad Inflection Point

[Official White House Photo, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Yesterday was a very good day for Trump 2024. Special Counsel Robert Hur released his report that offered seven words that should end the Biden presidency, effectively saying that Biden, 81, was not competent enough to stand trial. 

Now, new polling reveals that voters are looking at Biden and Trump’s presidencies and giving higher marks to the Republican frontrunner. 

NBC News offered details of the survey, and it’s got to be making Democrats nervous. 

Just 14% of registered voters say Biden has done a better job as president than they expected he would, according to the latest NBC News national poll. Another 42% say Biden has done a worse job than they expected, and 44% say his tenure has gone about as they expected it would. 

But 40% say Trump’s presidency was better than expected, with 29% saying it was worse and 31% saying it was about as expected.

Biden’s lower marks come in part from disappointment from inside his own party. While 52% of Democrats say his administration has met expectations, 30% say it has been better than they expected, and 18% said it has been worse. Trump inspires more enthusiastic Republican loyalty, with 80% of his party saying his administration was better than expected and just 6% saying it was worse. Another 24% of Republicans say Trump’s tenure was about as expected. 

Critically, Trump also fares far better than Biden with independent voters — 38% of them say Trump’s administration went better than expected, 43% say it went as expected, and 18% say it was worse. Just 6% of independents believe Biden’s administration is going better than they expected, with 52% saying it has gone worse. 

Biden may have reached a point of no return with the public. Writing in The Hill, Keith Naughton writes that in “August 2021, President Biden hit an inflection point, shifting from net positive to net negative in his approval rating — and he has never recovered. Ominously, he passed what looks to be another inflection point in November, definitively falling behind Donald Trump in the ballot test. And he might not recover from that either. 

Despite the noise, the battle for the presidency in 2024 has followed a fairly simple incumbent-challenger dynamic, if impeded somewhat by Trump’s unpopularity. The sitting president started out with a strong inaugural ‘honeymoon’ polling bounce, which degraded over time as challenges to the president naturally created division and disappointment.

Biden is in real trouble, and no whistling past the graveyard or statistical gymnastics can change that. While losing the lead in the national ballot test is bad, it is his terrible polling in the swing states that puts his re-election in serious doubt. The deficits are significant, and Biden still must hang on to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Given the relative stability of voter opinion, any sudden move is not likely. 

What is bedeviling Biden is the deteriorating international situation and the migrant crisis. In the former, his team has shown no ability to calm the waters and his administration has no discernible national security strategy at all. To expect a coherent policy to be whipped up in a few months when none has existed in over three years strains credulity.”

Trump maintains a small lead over Biden in national polling, but his own unpopularity will still likely make the race a toss-up that leans toward his return to the White House rather than a rout that it would be under most other Republican candidates. 

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